Salt Lake County could lose more than a quarter of its college-age residents between 2028 and 2047, according to a University of Utah study released Thursday, Sept. 17.

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute projects Utah's 18-to-24-year-old population will peak around 2028 and then fall by 17.9%, or roughly 85,000 people, through 2047. For Salt Lake County, home to Granite School District and Millcreek, the projected decline exceeds 25%. Combined with Davis County, the two counties stand to lose more than 45,000 college-age residents over that period.

The numbers are worse than the institute's earlier forecast. Updated projections show the decline starting around 2029, three years sooner than previously estimated. It will also last longer: 19 years instead of 13. And it will cut deeper, with 85,000 fewer young adults statewide compared with 53,000 in the prior estimate.

Twenty-eight of Utah's 29 counties face a decline. Wayne County is the only one projected to gain college-age residents.

Granite District already adjusting

Granite School District, the state's third-largest with 58,312 students as of fall 2023, is already grappling with shrinking numbers. That count, reported by the Utah State Board of Education, came during the first statewide enrollment decline on record.

The district's own documents cite "declining enrollment across the district, which affects funding formulas" as a financial challenge. At a Tuesday, Aug. 4 board meeting, Planning and Boundaries Director Steve Hogan said the district had hired consultant MGT to conduct a population analysis. Board President Nicole McDermott said any school closures would not take effect until August 2028.

Fertility rates and college enrollment both declining

The Gardner Institute traces the demographic shift partly to falling total fertility rates, which have declined steadily since 2008 and are now rippling into the college-age population.

College-going rates have also fallen. The share of Utah high school graduates enrolling in a public in-state institution dropped from 56.7% in 2019 to 51.7% in 2025, according to the study. Statewide, higher education institutions retained only 68.7% of first-year students between 2023 and 2024, ABC4 reported. About 7,000 students from that entering class did not return the following fall.

"Utah's demographic landscape is changing," said Heidi Prior, senior public policy analyst at the Gardner Institute and lead author of the brief. "The approaching decline in college-age residents reflects a broader shift in Utah's age structure, with important implications for higher education."

The study notes that more than one-third of working-age Utahns lack a postsecondary credential. Because the population aged 25 and older is projected to grow even as the traditional college-age group shrinks, the institute sees adult learners as a potential enrollment opportunity.

MGT's population analysis and school-capacity recommendations for Granite District are expected by September 2027.